錯謬:不合理使用連串因果關係。
例子:遲到的學生要判死刑。因為遲到是不用功的表現;將來工作也不勤力;不勤力導致公司損失;公司損失就會倒閉;公司倒閉會使人失業;失業造成家庭問題;家庭問題導致自殺率上升,為了防止自殺率上升,我們應判遲到的學生死刑。
解釋:滑坡謬誤中假定了連串「可能性」為「必然性」。比方說,遲到是否「必然」是不用功的表現?將來工作又是否「必然」不勤力?答案可想而知。例子雖然誇張,但其實許多時候大家亦會犯相同錯誤而不自知。
滑坡謬誤
定义:声称某事之后将会发生一连串通常是可怕的后果,但却并无充分证据支撑该推论。这样的推论断定,如果再往前一步踏上“滑坡”,就必定会一路滑跌到沟底,亦即假定我们不可能中途停住。
示例:“动物实验有损对生命的尊重。如果不尊重生命,即可能越来越容忍诸如战争及杀人等等暴力行为。那么,社会将很快就会沦为战场,人人都会时刻担忧自己的生命。这将是文明的末日。为了防止出现这种可怕结果,应当立即宣布动物实验为非法。”由于动物实验为合法存在已有相当时日,而文明也并未面临末日,因此似乎非常明显:这一系列事件未必就会件件发生。即使认同动物实验的确危及对生命的尊重,而不尊重生命可以导致容忍暴力,但到此也可能就到了滑坡事件的终止点:我们也许不会非得一路滑跌到文明的末日。因此,并没有充分的理由让我们接受“必须宣布动物实验为非法”的结论。
与“事后归因”类似,“滑坡”谬论迷惑性也很强,难以识别,因为有时的确可以预知某事之后的一系列连锁反应。请看一个似乎并无谬误的例子:“如果我英语101课程不合格,就不能毕业。如果不能毕业,可能就找不到好工作,因此明年我也就很可能只能打零工或者做汉堡了。”
建议:检查论证中属于“如果甲,那么乙,而如果乙,则丙”之类的连锁引申,确保事件系列关联合理。
2. When you get angry, you go blow-off steam.
3. When you go blow-off steam, accidents happen.
4. When accidents happen, you get an eye-patch.
5. When you get an eye-patch, people think you’re tough.
6. When people think you’re tough, people want to see how tough.
7. And when people want to see how tough, you wake-up in a roadside ditch.
8. Don’t wake-up in a roadside ditch. Get rid of cable.
The Slippery Slope is a fallacy in which a person asserts that some event must inevitably follow from another without any argument for the inevitability of the event in question. In most cases, there are a series of steps or gradations between one event and the one in question and no reason is given as to why the intervening steps or gradations will simply be bypassed. This "argument" has the following form:
- Event X has occurred (or will or might occur).
- Therefore event Y will inevitably happen.
This sort of "reasoning" is fallacious because there is no reason to believe that one event must inevitably follow from another without an argument for such a claim. This is especially clear in cases in which there is a significant number of steps or gradations between one event and another.
沒有留言:
張貼留言